--- title: Week 8 2026 Verdict Store Reconciliation type: text description: >- The week 8 2026 chosen positions against results and placement: record, positions, placement, reads that hit with no position, and the tail audit. base_uri: user:text/nfl/nfl-betting/2026/week-8/week-8-review/verdict-store-reconciliation.md created_at: '2026-11-03T21:33:49.419Z' entity_id: 3a7e3645-c2c6-4c13-96cf-e2f7eafdd283 observations: - ████████████████████████████████████████████████ owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████ public_read: true relations: - relates [[█████████████████-█████████████████-██████-█-███████████]] tags: - user:tag/nfl-betting.md updated_at: '2026-11-03T21:33:49.419Z' visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-03T21:35:06.016Z' --- The week 8 chosen positions set against what happened and what was placed. ## Record Each position at one unit. Every position, with its result and its members' read grades, is in [[user:text/nfl/nfl-betting/2026/week-8/week-8-review/week-8-records.md|the week's records]]. | Slate | Record | Units | | --- | --- | --- | | Sets | 17-13 | +4.66u | | Parlays | 5-42 | −16.94u | ## Positions A set pays when one member hits, at its members' stake shares; a parlay when every leg does. Units are one unit on the position. | Position | Members hit | Units | | --- | --- | --- | | **CAR @ GB** | | | | parlay `sgp-2d9a2eb6d3` · our chance <1% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `car-gb-tails-gb-air` · our chance 80% | 3 of 7 | +0.47u | | set `car-gb-tails-gb-ground` · our chance 64% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | **ARI @ DAL** | | | | parlay `ari-dal-dal-runaway-no-ari-total` · our chance 3% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `dal-runaway-dal7` · our chance 2% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `ari-dal-early-cover` · our chance 97% | 1 of 2 | −0.21u | | set `ari-dal-early-tails` · our chance 36% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | set `ari-dal-script` · our chance 57% | 1 of 7 | +0.07u | | **ATL @ TB** | | | | parlay `atl-controls-salt-longshot` · our chance 2% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `sgp-7d0b9f2dca` · our chance 20% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | set `atl-tb-tails` · our chance 96% | 3 of 12 | +0.22u | | **BAL @ BUF** | | | | parlay `bal-buf-bal-wins-shootout` · our chance 9% | 1 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `bal-buf-buf-pulls-away-lamar-chases` · our chance 4% | 2 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `bal-buf-buf-wins-shootout` · our chance 10% | 2 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `buf-win-allen-cook-shakir` · our chance 1% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `bal-buf-allen-cook-2td-or-cook-100-rushing` · our chance 76% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `bal-buf-allen-or-cook-td` · our chance 86% | 2 of 2 | +0.60u | | set `bal-buf-chalk-bridge` · our chance 100% | 2 of 3 | +0.29u | | set `bal-buf-every-branch` · our chance 87% | 1 of 8 | −0.43u | | **CLE @ PIT** | | | | parlay `cle-pit-tight-warren-metcalf` · our chance 1% | 2 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `cle-pit-sides-concepcion-warren-boston` · our chance 92% | 2 of 8 | +0.13u | | **IND @ JAX** | | | | parlay `ind-jax-taylor-hat-trick-upset` · our chance 2% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | set `ind-jax-colts-hang` · our chance 83% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | set `ind-jax-scripts` · our chance 90% | 2 of 9 | +0.17u | | **LV @ NYJ** | | | | parlay `lv-nyj-cousins-chase-longshot` · our chance 2% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | set `lv-nyj-scripts` · our chance 76% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `lv-nyj-tails` · our chance 35% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | **MIN @ DET** | | | | parlay `det-two-scores-longshot` · our chance 1% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `min-det-det-one-piece` · our chance 29% | 3 of 3 | +2.34u | | parlay `min-det-gibbs-150-piece` · our chance 19% | 2 of 2 | +3.43u | | set `min-det-script` · our chance 40% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `min-det-under-bridge` · our chance 91% | 1 of 3 | −0.24u | | **TEN @ CIN** | | | | parlay `ten-cin-chase-150` · our chance 1% | 0 of 5 | −1.00u | | parlay `ten-cin-chase-red-zone` · our chance 1% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `ten-cin-controls-piece` · our chance 33% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `ten-cin-rout` · our chance 1% | 2 of 5 | −1.00u | | parlay `ten-cin-ten-upset` · our chance 1% | 2 of 6 | −1.00u | | set `ten-cin-air-or-grind` · our chance 48% | 2 of 2 | +5.18u | | set `ten-cin-early-cover` · our chance 94% | 2 of 2 | +0.62u | | set `ten-cin-early-tails` · our chance 17% | 0 of 1 | −1.00u | | set `ten-cin-longshots` · our chance 65% | 4 of 7 | +2.99u | | set `ten-cin-medium` · our chance 92% | 5 of 9 | +1.02u | | **LAC @ LA** | | | | parlay `lac-clean-pocket-upset` · our chance 1% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `nacua-ceiling` · our chance 1% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `rams-ground-control` · our chance 3% | 2 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `rams-ground-control-higbee` · our chance 1% | 2 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `shootout-passers` · our chance 1% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | set `lac-la-scripts` · our chance 63% | 0 of 5 | −1.00u | | **KC @ DEN** | | | | parlay `den-by-one-mahomes-scrambles` · our chance 12% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `den-by-one-read-path` · our chance 43% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `den-controls-coleman-piece` · our chance 29% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `den-controls-coleman-salts` · our chance 3% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `dobbins-goal-line` · our chance 7% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `kc-by-one-walker-grinds` · our chance 2% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `kc-controls-walker-breaks` · our chance 1% | 1 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `shootout-mahomes-answers` · our chance 3% | 2 of 2 | +8.90u | | set `kc-den-branch-tails` · our chance 69% | 1 of 4 | +0.90u | | **NE @ MIA** | | | | parlay `gordon-breaks` · our chance 1% | 0 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `maye-chase-piece` · our chance 6% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `ne-controls-air-salt` · our chance 3% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `ne-controls-piece` · our chance 22% | 2 of 3 | −1.00u | | parlay `ne-goal-line-piece` · our chance 8% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | set `ne-air-tails` · our chance 34% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | set `ne-mia-henry-volume` · our chance 55% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | set `ne-mia-script` · our chance 51% | 0 of 3 | −1.00u | | **PHI @ WAS** | | | | parlay `phi-upset-piece` · our chance 21% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `shootout-longshot` · our chance 1% | 0 of 5 | −1.00u | | parlay `was-by-one-longshot` · our chance 3% | 1 of 4 | −1.00u | | parlay `was-controls-longshot` · our chance 1% | 2 of 4 | −1.00u | | set `coverage` · our chance 79% | 0 of 5 | −1.00u | | **CHI @ SEA** | | | | parlay `chi-by-one-piece` · our chance 14% | 3 of 3 | +6.38u | | parlay `chi-controls-piece` · our chance 15% | 2 of 2 | +4.01u | | parlay `sea-by-one-piece` · our chance 29% | 1 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `sea-controls-piece` · our chance 16% | 0 of 2 | −1.00u | | parlay `shootout-longshot` · our chance 1% | 2 of 5 | −1.00u | | set `chi-sea-every-branch` · our chance 84% | 2 of 5 | +1.99u | | set `chi-sea-tails` · our chance 39% | 1 of 5 | +3.90u | ## Placement 2432 legs placed across 14 games; 2428 match a position member or plan slip leg. 3 legs sit off the slate, 1 at a line other than the member's, and 0 at another book or price. | Game | Placed | Off the ruling | | --- | --- | --- | | CAR @ GB | 22 legs · 3 of 17 members not placed | 3 no position, 1 other line | | ARI @ DAL | 136 legs · 5 of 16 members not placed | — | | ATL @ TB | 606 legs · 3 of 18 members not placed | — | | BAL @ BUF | 677 legs · 2 of 27 members not placed | — | | CLE @ PIT | 10 legs · 8 of 14 members not placed | — | | IND @ JAX | 178 legs · 7 of 15 members not placed | — | | LV @ NYJ | 190 legs · 0 of 11 members not placed | — | | MIN @ DET | 14 legs · 4 of 15 members not placed | — | | TEN @ CIN | 300 legs · 3 of 24 members not placed | — | | LAC @ LA | 23 legs · 4 of 15 members not placed | — | | KC @ DEN | 20 legs · 4 of 15 members not placed | — | | NE @ MIA | 238 legs · 0 of 13 members not placed | — | | PHI @ WAS | 18 legs · 4 of 18 members not placed | — | | CHI @ SEA | 0 legs · 10 of 10 members not placed | — | ### Placed off the ruling | Leg | Ruled | Ticket | | --- | --- | --- | | CAR @ GB · GB team total over 29.5 (FANDUEL) | no position | parlay | | CAR @ GB · Josh Jacobs 10+ Recv Yds (FANDUEL) | no position | parlay | | CAR @ GB · Josh Jacobs 40+ Rush Yds (FANDUEL) | no position | parlay | | CAR @ GB · Christian Watson 90+ Recv Yds (FANDUEL) | ruled at 124.5, 99.5 | parlay | ## Reads that hit with no position 1382 priced reads hit that no position held, one per player and market at its longest price. ### At +300 or longer (254) | Selection | Value | Our chance | | --- | --- | --- | | ARI @ DAL · Tyler Allgeier 2+ TDs (+4000 at FanDuel) | -0.02 | 2% | | TEN @ CIN · TEN @ CIN total over 76.5 (+3500 at FanDuel) | -0.39 | 2% | | ATL @ TB · ATL @ TB total under 18.5 (+3500 at FanDuel) | -0.86 | <1% | | CHI @ SEA · D'Andre Swift 3+ TDs (+3500 at FanDuel) | +2.82 | 11% | | LV @ NYJ · Kirk Cousins 1+ TD (+2757 at Novig) | -0.34 | 2% | | LV @ NYJ · Dylan Laube 1+ TD (+2400 at Novig) | +0.45 | 6% | | CLE @ PIT · Harold Fannin Jr. 9+ Recs (+2400 at Kalshi) | -0.44 | 2% | | ATL @ TB · ATL team total under 3.5 (+2400 at Kalshi) | -0.81 | 1% | | KC @ DEN · Emmett Johnson 70+ Rush+Rec Yds (+2400 at Kalshi) | +0.48 | 6% | | KC @ DEN · Emmett Johnson 5+ Recs (+2400 at Kalshi) | -0.34 | 3% | | ARI @ DAL · Tyler Allgeier 125+ Rush Yds (+2000 at BetMGM) | -1.00 | 0% | | LV @ NYJ · Adonai Mitchell 125+ Recv Yds (+2000 at BetMGM) | -0.98 | <1% | | ATL @ TB · Kenneth Gainwell 125+ Rush+Rec Yds (+2000 at BetMGM) | -0.92 | <1% | | TEN @ CIN · █████ Brown 8+ Recs (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.55 | 2% | | TEN @ CIN · Gunnar Helm 70+ Recv Yds (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.94 | <1% | | TEN @ CIN · Joe Burrow 3+ INT (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.66 | 2% | | TEN @ CIN · Tee Higgins 10+ Recs (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.14 | 5% | | CLE @ PIT · Dylan Sampson 60+ Recv Yds (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.59 | 2% | | CLE @ PIT · Harold Fannin Jr. 125+ Recv Yds (+1900 at BetMGM) | -0.86 | 1% | | ATL @ TB · Bucky Irving 150+ Rush Yds (+1900 at Kalshi) | -0.53 | 2% | 234 more are not shown. ### Shorter than +300, by our chance (1128) | Selection | Value | Our chance | | --- | --- | --- | | BAL @ BUF · Ray Davis under 39.5 Rush Yds (-4900 at Kalshi) | +0.02 | 100% | | CHI @ SEA · Zach Charbonnet under 3.5 Recs (-1011 at Kalshi) | +0.09 | 100% | | BAL @ BUF · Mark Andrews 5+ Longest Rec (-2200 at Fanatics) | +0.04 | 100% | | ARI @ DAL · Brevyn Spann-Ford under 4.5 Recs (-1567 at Kalshi) | +0.05 | 100% | | TEN @ CIN · Gunnar Helm under 5.5 Recs (-1076 at Novig) | +0.08 | 99% | | TEN @ CIN · █████ Brown under 8.5 Recs (-9900 at Kalshi) | +0.00 | 99% | | CLE @ PIT · Dylan Sampson under 6.5 Recs (-9900 at Kalshi) | +0.00 | 99% | | LV @ NYJ · Jalen Nailor under 4.5 Recs (-4900 at Kalshi) | +0.01 | 99% | | NE @ MIA · Chris Bell under 4.5 Recs (-3233 at Kalshi) | +0.02 | 99% | | ARI @ DAL · Michael Wilson under 119.5 Recv Yds (-1150 at Novig) | +0.07 | 99% | | KC @ DEN · Cyrus Allen under 2.5 Recs (-1567 at Kalshi) | +0.04 | 99% | | BAL @ BUF · Justice Hill under 4.5 Recs (-1900 at Kalshi) | +0.03 | 98% | | CLE @ PIT · CLE team total over 3.5 (-2400 at Kalshi) | +0.02 | 98% | | KC @ DEN · Bo Nix under 2.5 Pass TDs (-900 at Kalshi) | +0.08 | 98% | | TEN @ CIN · Daniel Bellinger under 39.5 Recv Yds (-1150 at Kalshi) | +0.06 | 98% | | TEN @ CIN · Daniel Bellinger under 3.5 Recs (-1567 at Kalshi) | +0.04 | 98% | | NE @ MIA · Efton Chism III under 5.5 Recs (-1329 at Kalshi) | +0.05 | 98% | | KC @ DEN · Cyrus Allen under 24.5 Recv Yds (-669 at Kalshi) | +0.12 | 98% | | IND @ JAX · Nate Boerkircher under 39.5 Recv Yds (-1150 at Kalshi) | +0.06 | 98% | | TEN @ CIN · Tee Higgins under 10.5 Recs (-9900 at Kalshi) | -0.01 | 98% | 1108 more are not shown. ### Long end of the tail audit ```text Week 8: 499 player-families reached a posted rung, ranked by the market probability of the furthest rung reached ("<=" where he passed the top rung). Beside each, whether his curves before kickoff reached that rung. EXIT? marks an outcome to throw out if an in-game injury caused it. <=0.024 ARI v DAL Tyler Allgeier rushing_yards 147 past 79.5 read at 79.5 EXIT? key teammate Love at 0.17 snaps (median 0.45) <=0.024 NYJ v LV Adonai Mitchell receiving_yards 142 past 119.5 read at 119.5 EXIT? key teammate Williams at 0.15 snaps (median 0.60) <=0.025 KC v DEN Emmett Johnson scrimmage_yards 143 past 79.5 read at 79.5 <=0.026 KC v DEN Emmett Johnson receiving_yards 128 past 59.5 read at 59.5 0.027 ARI v DAL Tyler Allgeier touchdowns 2 past 1.5 read at 1.5 EXIT? key teammate Love at 0.17 snaps (median 0.45) 0.027 TB v ATL Bucky Irving rushing_yards 170 past 169.5 past his curve at 169.5 (reaches 159) <=0.028 CLE v PIT Harold Fannin Jr. receiving_yards 154 past 109.5 read at 109.5 <=0.029 TB v ATL Kenny Gainwell rushing_yards 140 past 69.5 read at 69.5 0.030 DET v MIN Sione Vaki rushing_yards 65 past 59.5 read at 59.5 <=0.033 CIN v TEN Joe Burrow passing_yards 462 past 449.5 past his curve at 449.5 (reaches 429) <=0.035 NYJ v LV Adonai Mitchell receptions 7 past 6.5 read at 6.5 EXIT? key teammate Williams at 0.15 snaps (median 0.60) 0.035 PIT v CLE Darnell Washington receiving_yards 94 past 89.5 read at 89.5 0.036 TEN v CIN Cam Ward rushing_yards 41 past 39.5 read at 39.5 <=0.038 CHI v SEA D'Andre Swift touchdowns 3 past 2.5 read at 2.5 <=0.038 KC v DEN Emmett Johnson receptions 5 past 4.5 read at 4.5 0.043 LV v NYJ Kirk Cousins touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 <=0.046 TB v ATL Kenny Gainwell scrimmage_yards 140 past 99.5 read at 99.5 0.048 PHI v WAS Tanner McKee rushing_yards 25 past 24.5 read at 24.5 <=0.048 CLE v PIT Harold Fannin Jr. receptions 10 past 8.5 read at 8.5 0.051 PIT v CLE Jaylen Warren rushing_yards 143 past 139.5 read at 139.5 0.052 ATL v TB Jahan Dotson receiving_yards 95 past 89.5 read at 89.5 0.055 CLE v PIT Dylan Sampson receiving_yards 62 past 59.5 read at 59.5 0.056 DAL v ARI James Mitchell touchdowns 0 past 0.5 read at 0.5 EXIT? key teammate Ferguson at 0.06 snaps (median 0.64) 0.062 TEN v CIN Gunnar Helm receiving_yards 76 past 69.5 read at 69.5 0.062 MIA v NE Kevin Coleman touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.064 TB v ATL Bucky Irving scrimmage_yards 170 past 169.5 read at 169.5 0.065 CIN v TEN █████ Brown receptions 8 past 7.5 read at 7.5 0.065 LV v NYJ Dylan Laube touchdowns 0 past 0.5 read at 0.5 EXIT? own snaps 0.02, median 0.08 0.065 CIN v TEN Tee Higgins receptions 10 past 9.5 read at 9.5 0.066 CAR v GB Chuba Hubbard receptions 7 past 6.5 read at 6.5 0.067 NYJ v LV Isaiah Williams touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 EXIT? own snaps 0.15, median 0.60 0.068 DEN v KC Nate Adkins touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.074 CIN v TEN Jack Endries touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.077 CLE v PIT Deshaun Watson passing_yards 324 past 319.5 read at 319.5 0.077 LAC v LA Oronde Gadsden II receptions 5 past 4.5 read at 4.5 0.080 CLE v PIT Dylan Sampson receptions 6 past 5.5 read at 5.5 <=0.083 TEN v CIN Chimere Dike receiving_yards 71 past 49.5 read at 49.5 0.083 WAS v PHI Treylon Burks receiving_yards 81 past 79.5 read at 79.5 0.084 CIN v TEN Tee Higgins receiving_yards 155 past 149.5 read at 149.5 <=0.085 CIN v TEN Joe Burrow passing_touchdowns 5 past 4.5 read at 4.5 0.089 CIN v TEN Mike Gesicki receiving_yards 76 past 69.5 read at 69.5 0.095 JAX v IND Bhayshul Tuten receiving_yards 55 past 49.5 read at 49.5 0.095 TEN v CIN Cam Ward passing_yards 304 past 299.5 read at 299.5 0.099 LV v NYJ Mike Washington Jr. rushing_yards 83 past 74.5 read at 74.5 0.100 KC v DEN Emmett Johnson touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.100 NYJ v LV Braelon Allen rushing_yards 147 past 139.5 read at 139.5 EXIT? key teammate Williams at 0.15 snaps (median 0.60) 0.105 BUF v BAL Ray Davis rushing_yards 30 past 29.5 read at 29.5 0.108 TEN v CIN Tony Pollard touchdowns 2 past 1.5 read at 1.5 0.108 JAX v IND Bhayshul Tuten scrimmage_yards 159 past 149.5 read at 149.5 0.109 GB v CAR Josh Jacobs receptions 6 past 5.5 read at 5.5 0.110 DEN v KC Jonah Coleman receiving_yards 63 past 59.5 read at 59.5 0.111 LAC v LA Oronde Gadsden II receiving_yards 52 past 49.5 read at 49.5 0.111 TEN v CIN Chimere Dike touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.118 KC v DEN Noah Gray touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.118 KC v DEN Patrick Mahomes passing_yards 321 past 319.5 read at 319.5 0.125 DET v MIN Jahmyr Gibbs rushing_yards 153 past 149.5 read at 149.5 0.129 LV v NYJ Brock Bowers touchdowns 2 past 1.5 read at 1.5 0.133 JAX v IND Nate Boerkircher touchdowns 1 past 0.5 read at 0.5 0.135 CIN v TEN Ja'Marr Chase receptions 11 past 10.5 read at 10.5 0.138 LV v NYJ Jalen Nailor receptions 4 past 3.5 read at 3.5 ... 439 more, each reached at a probability of 0.138 or higher; --limit 0 prints all every outcome (499): read 492, no curve 5, past his curve 2 posted at about 2/1 or longer (163): read 161, past his curve 2 ```