---
title: Widen forecast uncertainty with horizon
type: task
status: draft
description: >-
  Replace the neutral variance fallback for far-future games with no market lines by a
  team-strength-derived spread and total. Variance growing with horizon moved to the stage-one
  production draws on 2026-09-30.
base_uri: user:task/league/widen-forecast-uncertainty-with-horizon.md
created_at: '2026-09-27T00:27:28.290Z'
entity_id: 70f5281c-fb77-47a3-80e3-0fdfb3eb10d0
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
relations:
  - blocked_by [[█████████████████████████-██████-██████████-██████████████]]
  - relates [[████████████████████-██████████-███████████-█████████-████-███████]]
  - blocked_by [[█████████████████████████-██████-████████-████-██-█████-██-███████]]
  - relates [[██████████████████████-██████████-█████-██-██████-███████████]]
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-09-30T15:20:14.395Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:50:37.892Z'
---

# Widen forecast uncertainty with horizon

## Problem

A week-14 projection is treated as exactly as certain as next week's. Far-future games also have no market lines, so `load_game_environment` finds nothing and the variance scale silently falls back to 1.0 (`libs-shared/simulation/apply-game-environment-adjustments.mjs`).

## Intent

- Variance growing with weeks-ahead is out of scope as of 2026-09-30. It moved to [[██████████████████████-██████████-█████-██-██████-███████████]]: the season forecast takes its player marginal from stage-one draws, which forecast per future week.
- Replace the neutral fallback for games without lines with a team-strength-derived spread and total.

Overlaps the game-script task on how missing lines are filled — settle that once.

Gate: must beat the baseline from the calibration backtest.