---
title: Simulate positional injury distributions
type: task
status: draft
description: >-
  Estimate per-position weekly injury rates and length-of-absence distributions from historical NFL
  injury data to power realistic roster simulations.
base_uri: user:task/league/simulate-positional-injury-distributions.md
created_at: '2026-04-26T16:09:12.312Z'
entity_id: 8224efb9-43c8-49d1-824f-6c274b1ec4af
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-09-30T15:19:37.716Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:50:27.657Z'
---

# Simulate positional injury distributions

Build a simulation primitive for weekly fantasy roster outcomes that models injury risk grounded in historical data, not flat priors.

## Scope

Two distributions to estimate from historical NFL injury data, both keyed by position:

- **Weekly injury rate per position** -- probability that a starter at position P misses any portion of a given week due to injury.
- **Length-of-absence distribution per position** -- given an injury occurs, how many weeks (and with what tail shape) the player is out.

Outputs feed into roster simulators (lineup variance, season-long projections, trade evaluations) so that QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, K, DST each carry realistic injury volatility instead of a global rate.

## Source data

- `nfl_player_injury_status` / per-week injury report tables already imported by xo.football.
- See [[████████████████████-████-████████████]] "NFL injury report GraphQL queries" for the source endpoints.

## Source

Captured in Apple Notes "League Simulate" (mod 2022-10-21); migrated during Apple Notes triage on 2026-04-26.