---
title: Recalibrate the available-opportunity level bound against two complete seasons
type: task
status: planned
description: >-
  Check the verifier's square-root-scaled LEVEL bound, anchored on 2025 alone, against the completed
  2026 season; keep, re-anchor or replace it. Date-gated on 2026 finishing.
base_uri: user:task/league/recalibrate-available-opportunity-level-bound.md
created_at: '2026-10-09T21:15:18.474Z'
entity_id: fb15bdb1-830f-416b-9591-f1e70efa3d83
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
relations:
  - relates [[██████████████████████-██████-███████████-████████]]
suspension:
  until:
    type: date
    at: '2027-02-15T12:00:00.000Z'
  reason: held until 2027-02-15
  suspended_at: '2026-10-25T21:15:29.009Z'
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
  - user:tag/software-task.md
updated_at: '2026-10-25T21:22:11.151Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:49:54.683Z'
---

## Overview

Check the available-opportunity verifier's sample-scaled LEVEL bound against two complete seasons once 2026 finishes. The bound scales a 2% tolerance by the square-root sampling law, anchored on 2025 alone, because the corrected route population had only one complete season when it was set on 2026-09-24.

Moved out of [[██████████████████████-██████-███████████-████████]] when that task completed on 2026-10-09, so this date-gated work keeps a live task.

## Plan

- [ ] **Re-run the three-week-window touchdown measurement on 2026 the way it was run on 2025**
  - 2025 gave sixteen windows from -2.24% to +6.02%. A materially different 2026 range means the square-root form is wrong.
- [ ] **Grade 2026 retrospectively week by week with the scaled bound**
  - Shows whether the formula would have passed and failed the right weeks as the season filled in.
- [ ] **Rule on the formula: keep it, re-anchor `LEVEL_REFERENCE_REALIZED` on both seasons, or replace it**
  - Never widen the bound to make a reading pass. Find what moved instead.

The full brief, key locations and relevant commits are on [[████████████████████████-██-████████████████████-█████████-███████████-█████-████████]].