---
title: Establish whether anytime-touchdown markets should count return scores
type: task
status: planned
description: >-
  Our settlement mapping counts punt, kickoff and fumble return touchdowns toward
  GAME_PLAYER_ANYTIME_TOUCHDOWN, while sportsbooks reportedly exclude them. Establish the book rule
  before repairing the 140 graded rows that WON on a return score alone.
base_uri: user:task/league/establish-anytime-touchdown-return-score-rule.md
created_at: '2026-09-17T01:56:36.820Z'
entity_id: ce95f4ab-a687-419b-ad41-a57e294abfca
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Medium
public_read: true
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-09-17T02:04:33.374Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:49:12.187Z'
---

## Overview

`market-type-mappings.mjs` gives `GAME_PLAYER_ANYTIME_TOUCHDOWN` five metric
columns: `rushing_touchdowns`, `receiving_touchdowns`, `punt_return_touchdowns`,
`kickoff_return_touchdowns` and `fumble_return_touchdowns`. So a player who
scored only on a return grades as having scored.

Most sportsbooks reportedly settle anytime-touchdown-scorer on offensive
touchdowns only, excluding return scores. **That claim is the whole question and
it is NOT established** — nobody has read a book's rules. Surfaced 2026-09-16 by
two sessions independently; neither claimed the rule.

## Why this is not a repair task yet

The exposure is bounded and small, and the direction of any fix depends entirely
on an external fact. Measured 2026-09-16 by `██████████████████████████████`:
**140 graded rows, 26 players, 3 seasons** WON on a return score alone. That is
the entire population at risk — if the books include return scores, the count is
zero and nothing needs doing.

Repairing before establishing the rule would convert 140 correct grades into 140
wrong ones. Establish first.

## Plan

- [ ] **Establish the settlement rule, per book**
  - Read the published market rules for anytime-touchdown-scorer at each book
    that carries the type — FanDuel, DraftKings and PrizePicks are the ones with
    graded rows here. Record the rule text and its source URL per book, not a
    summary.
  - The rule may differ BY BOOK. Do not collapse to a single answer until the
    per-book readings agree; a mapping is global while the rule may not be.
- [ ] **Re-measure the exposure against the current corpus**
  - The 140 is a 2026-09-16 reading and settlement keeps running. Re-measure
    before acting rather than spending the inherited number.
  - Pair the count with a known-positive control, and name the UNIT: a market is
    two rows, so an uncollapsed join doubles it.
- [ ] **Decide and, only then, repair**
  - If books EXCLUDE return scores: the metric columns are wrong, and the fix is
    the mapping plus a forced re-settle of the affected markets. Settlement only
    writes forward, so a mapping change alone leaves every existing grade as-is —
    the matching repair is owed in the same unit of work.
  - If books INCLUDE them: record the finding, close this task, and note the
    mapping as verified rather than assumed.
  - Either way the derived hit-rate columns are stale afterwards for this type.
    `calculate-historical-hit-rates.mjs` now takes `--selection_pids`, so scope
    the recompute to the affected players rather than running a season.

## Traps

**`nfl_plays` cannot adjudicate this and returns a confident zero.**
`returner_pid` is null on every kickoff row, so a per-player touchdown count
assembled from the plays table reports 0 for a player who scored on a return.
Two correct findings were nearly written off on that basis. `player_gamelogs` is
the only source carrying return scores. Full detail on
[[███████████████████████████████-█████████-████████]].

## Context

- Mapping: `libs-server/prop-market-settlement/market-type-mappings.mjs`
- Repo: `repository/active/league`
- Related: [[██████████████████████████-██████-██████████-██████████-█████████████]]
  is the same shape for a different book and is date-gated to roughly
  2026-09-23; read its Plan for the comparison method before inventing one.