---
title: Draw game path owner dials per path
type: task
status: planned
description: >-
  Generalize the per-path own-rate draw into owner dials drawn once per path and again at an in-game
  context break, with the run/pass lean folded in from its held branch and the thin-evidence rule
  (sampling spread at or above the minimum, refusal with a flag below it).
base_uri: user:task/league/draw-game-path-owner-dials.md
created_at: '2026-11-03T16:34:50.938Z'
entity_id: 0b6ed6d9-19f0-4988-8f7c-296df9fc8352
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: High
public_read: true
relations:
  - subtask_of [[user:task/league/build-game-path-owner-profile-foundation.md]]
  - blocked_by [[██████████████████████-████-████-█████-███████-█████-███-█████-████████]]
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
  - user:tag/nfl-betting.md
updated_at: '2026-11-03T16:34:55.385Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:49:10.779Z'
---

# Draw game path owner dials per path

A phase of [[user:task/league/build-game-path-owner-profile-foundation.md]], which holds the overview, background, design, assumptions and notes this plan relies on; read its Design and Notes first. Paths are relative to `repository/active/league/` unless they start with a user-base directory.

## Plan

### Dials

- [ ] **Owner dials, with the run/pass lean as the first**
  - File: the runner; `libs-shared/nfl-game-path-profiles/measure-registry.mjs`; the measure from `engine/pass-rate-dispersion` (`e312dd81d`)
  - Purpose: game-level variation per owner, generalizing `draw_own_rate`.
  - Changes: draw each owner's dials once per path from its own stream, redrawn at a detected in-game context break; port the leave-one-out run/pass spread as the offensive caller's variation, with the spread drawn from its sampling distribution given n and refusal below the minimum; delete the branch and its worktree.
  - Verify: a spec shows a three-game owner spreads wider per path than a ten-game owner and a two-game owner refuses with the flag; the forward gate passes on pass rate; `git worktree list` no longer shows the branch.