---
title: Condition game path player yards on the opposing defense
type: task
status: cancelled
description: >-
  A player's own plays in the archetype-role touch draw are not matched on the opposing defense,
  while the play draw is; some offenses score short in forward coverage as a result. Add an
  opponent-defense step to the player-yards cell that keeps his yards from his own plays.
base_uri: user:task/league/condition-game-path-player-yards-on-the-opposing-defense.md
created_at: '2026-10-30T15:44:49.205Z'
entity_id: d5d92627-81d4-4589-9b49-aa1acee65509
finished_at: '2026-11-04T15:26:19.904Z'
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Medium
public_read: true
relations:
  - relates [[█████████████████████-███-████-█████-████-█████████-████████]]
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-11-04T15:26:19.904Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:48:35.372Z'
---

## Why

The archetype-role touch draw (league a7e5b852d) draws a routed player's yards from his own plays, narrowed by down and distance and the play's design. Nothing narrows them on the defense he faces. The play draw matches its call ladder on the matchup, and the slot-fill draw it replaced took the whole matched team play, so it carried the opponent with it.

In 2026 weeks 3-8 forward coverage (run 6, league 54c5f488d), team points ran short of slot-fill on shared players (mean PIT 0.555 against 0.544). The shortfall concentrates in IND, DEN, DET, PHI, NYJ and MIN, which scored 18.2 a game against 21.1 real. Their receivers' own early-down open-field plays ran short of their real games: WR 8.86 and TE 6.65 yards a target in their own pools, against 9.14 and 7.68 in the games played.

## Constraint

The operator ruling stands: a player's yards come from his own plays only (2026-10-30). The opponent enters as a narrowing of his own plays, or as a weight on them, never as a borrowed play. Never tune to the market or outside sims ([[user:guideline/nfl/betting/bet-the-game-read-against-the-market.md]]).

## Open questions for planning

- Which defense measure narrows the cell: the defensive caller's own coverage and pass-rusher bands the snap already drew, or a defense quality band?
- Is the measure a cell rung (match his own plays against similar defenses, widening when thin), or a reweighting of his whole sample?
- The gate: the forward coverage command at seeds 7 and 11, judged on the players both engines count, with team points PIT back to the slot-fill baseline (0.546) or better.