---
title: Build a draft pick value model
type: task
status: draft
description: >-
  Compute per-pick draft value from realized NFL fantasy production, weighted by draft class factor,
  historical positional value, and pick hit rate. Outputs feed dynasty trade evaluation and rookie
  draft strategy.
base_uri: user:task/league/build-draft-pick-value-model.md
created_at: '2026-04-26T17:54:20.868Z'
entity_id: 5a03e2a9-2f0c-454e-b37a-6221fed0bf8f
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-09-30T15:19:39.025Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:48:26.521Z'
---

# Build a draft pick value model

Compute a defensible value for each NFL draft pick (and dynasty rookie pick) using realized fantasy production rather than imported third-party charts. Outputs feed dynasty trade evaluation, rookie draft strategy, and `lifetime-value-metric` style player valuation work.

## Methodology

Two-component model, computed per pick number:

- **Player Value To Date** -- realized fantasy points (and/or league-scoring points) by the player drafted at each pick, accumulated across the windows below.
- **Pick Hit Rate** -- probability that a pick at slot N produces a hit (define hit as top-N positional finish, starter snap rate, etc.).

Combine via weighting:

- Weight by **draft class factor** -- adjust for class strength so a deep-class WR1 is not equated with a thin-class WR1.
- Weight by **historical positional value** -- per-position value distributions differ; QB1 vs RB1 vs WR1 should not collapse into a single curve.
- Weight by **pick hit rate** -- discount expected value by historical hit probability at that slot.
- Use **mock drafts** as a proxy for future-class pick value where realized data does not exist yet.

## Per-class outputs

For each historical draft class compute and store:

- Career fantasy points added
- Fantasy points added through first three seasons
- Salary $ per fantasy point added (uses xo.football auction salary data)
- League draft pick number vs market (ADP / FantasyPros) draft position/rank

## Reference resources

- DynastyProcess values: `https://dynastyprocess.com/values`
- Footballguys 2020 dynasty trade value chart, rookies edition: `https://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2020-dynasty-trade-value-chart-rookies`

## Source

Captured in Apple Notes "Draft Pick Value" (mod 2022-08-14); migrated during Apple Notes triage on 2026-04-26.