---
title: Apply known absences to future weeks in the season forecast
type: task
status: draft
description: >-
  Draft: the season forecast sees a player's injury only when vendor projections drop him, so a star
  placed on season-ending IR keeps counting in future weeks for two to three snapshots; only the
  current week is zeroed today.
base_uri: user:task/league/apply-known-absences-to-future-weeks-in-season-forecast.md
created_at: '2026-10-01T04:00:04.986Z'
entity_id: 614f5e2d-cb74-4c61-8226-8f7f8c369d4b
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
relations:
  - relates [[████████████████████████████-███████-███████████-████-██████-██████-███████████]]
  - relates [[█████████████████████-██████████-█████████-████-███████]]
  - relates [[user:task/league/add-playoff-odds-trend-to-standings.md]]
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
  - user:tag/software-task.md
updated_at: '2026-10-01T04:00:04.986Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:48:22.772Z'
---

# Apply known absences to future weeks in the season forecast

## Problem

The season forecast never reads injury status for future weeks. A player drops out of the future-week lineup pool only once vendor projections for those weeks fall to zero, which happens at the overnight projection imports, so a known absence reaches the odds two to three snapshots late and often in pieces. The current week alone is zeroed at kickoff (`libs-server/load-unavailable-pids-for-week.mjs`, called from `scripts/process-projections.mjs`).

## Evidence (2026-10-01)

- League 1 team 12, Achane and Hall injured in-game Sunday 2026-09-27: playoff odds fell 6.4 on Tuesday when week 4 was zeroed and 12.7 on Wednesday when weeks 5 and later were zeroed.
- 2025 team 6, Josh Jacobs injured Sunday 2025-11-16: championship odds slid from 20.7 to 13.5 over five days in steps of one to two points.
- Future-week pool: `libs-server/simulation/load-team-rosters.mjs` (roster pool and projection gate) reading `scoring_format_player_projection_points`.

## Intent

- When a rostered player carries an IR, long-term reserve or season-ending designation, exclude him from future weeks without waiting for vendors.
- Leave weekly availability under uncertainty (questionable, doubtful) to the incidence model in the related task, and coverage gaps to the missing-projections task.