---
title: Add projected Lifetime Value metric to player valuation
type: task
status: cancelled
description: >-
  Forward-looking projected Lifetime Value metric: estimate per-player remainder-of-career
  points-above-baseline, modeling skill development curves and future opportunity. Companion to the
  historical _net Lifetime Value delivered by █████████████████████████████████ (2026-05-16).
aliases:
  - ████████████████████-████████-█████-██████-██-██████-████████████
base_uri: user:task/league/add-projected-lifetime-value-metric.md
created_at: '2026-04-24T22:59:59.308Z'
entity_id: 98c20303-e39a-4a7e-8990-57aa39c762dc
finished_at: '2026-09-06T05:18:35.937Z'
observations:
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
  - ████████████████████████████████████████████████
owner_identity_uri: █████████████████████████
priority: Low
public_read: true
tags:
  - user:tag/league-xo-football.md
updated_at: '2026-09-06T05:18:37.073Z'
visibility_analyzed_at: '2026-11-05T23:48:15.831Z'
---

## Intent

Add a Lifetime Value metric to the xo.football player valuation system, complementing the existing Redraft (rest-of-season) value. Lifetime Value estimates how many points a player contributes to the starting lineup over the remainder of their NFL career, so managers can compare dynasty asset trades and extension decisions on the same axis as the existing value metrics.

## Concept

Player value is defined as the points a player adds to the starting lineup versus a baseline (current baselines: worst starter / best available / hybrid).

- **Redraft value** uses current skill and current opportunity.
- **Lifetime value** uses projected future skill and projected future opportunity.

Lifetime projections must model two things redraft does not:

1. **Player skill progression.** Players trend toward their potential on position-dependent curves. Running backs mature quickly; quarterbacks and wide receivers develop more slowly. The "third-year breakout" heuristic for WRs (receivers often need ~2 seasons of NFL reps before peaking in year 3) is a concrete example of the kind of position-curve behavior the model should capture.
2. **Future opportunity.** Roster and depth-chart churn that moves a player's expected workload year over year:
   - Contract-year veterans who may not be re-signed.
   - Incoming draft capital at the player's position.
   - Aging veterans on rebuilding teams who may be traded.
   - Teams drafting a successor.

Output surface: boiled down to simple metrics on the players page next to the existing Redraft columns, with the same baseline selectors (worst starter / best available / hybrid).

## Open Questions

- How far to project — full remaining career, or a rolling 3-5 year horizon with diminishing weight?
- How to source / tune the development curves per position (empirical fit vs. manually calibrated).
- How to represent uncertainty — single-point estimate, confidence band, or both.
- Interaction with salary / extension mechanics in the league format (Lifetime Value should inform, but not replace, contract-aware decision tools).

## Prior Art

- Redraft value pipeline already computes skill × opportunity × baseline. Lifetime Value reuses the same math but swaps in forward projections.
- `text/nfl/auction-draft-strategy.md` may absorb the position-curve heuristics as general-purpose FF strategy reference independent of the platform implementation.

## Source

Drafted from Apple Notes "Lifetime Value --- [WORK IN PROGRESS]" (2020-10). The original note remains in Apple Notes as a working draft; this task captures the feature intent for the xo.football platform.